By Shagun Thapliyal, SAFN

“First and Second Scenarios successfully materialised, with none of the candidates securing a majority vote in the initial round. It also accurately predicted the majority vote share being split between the NPP and SJB”

The South Asia Foresight Network released a special report focusing on the latest Sri Lankan Presidential Elections on September 21, 2024. It is prepared by Mr. Asanga Abeyagoonasekera, Executive Director, SAFN and Ms.Ishini Shashipraba, Research Assistant, SAFN. This report highlighted the impact of the economic crisis, policy decisions and the political turmoil in Sri Lanka. It provided a well-rounded and critical analysis of the Political and Economic Challenges faced by Sri Lanka Currently alongside the evaluation of the candidates and their respective political parties who are in the running for the position of President.

“[Report] provided a well-rounded and critical analysis of the Political and Economic Challenges faced by Sri Lanka Currently alongside the evaluation of the candidates and their respective political parties”

It also contained some recommendations for the future government on various fronts which also include the reformation of Anti-Corruption Laws and the strengthening of the CIABOC and other Anti Corruption Units, prioritising inclusive economic growth and diversifying into different industries.  

The major challenges the future government faces range from the significant distrust within the Sri Lankan population towards the political leadership and establishing political stability to navigating foreign and economic policy-related challenges.

“people’s trust in the democratic structure due to the corruption of several leaders and the clampdown of voices of critique have been a huge issue in this election cycle which led to the popularity of the opposition parties such as the National People’s Party (NPP)”

Sri Lankan people’s trust in the democratic structure due to the corruption of several leaders and the clampdown of voices of critique have been a huge issue in this election cycle which led to the popularity of the opposition parties such as the National People’s Party (NPP), Samagi Jana Balawaegya (SJB) and United National Party (UNP), who were predicted to be leading in the poll numbers.

The Rajapaksa-led, Sri Lanka People’s Front (SLPP) was completely sidelined due to the ruin created by the former leadership and the voter-based split between the opposition parties, who have allied with minority leaders as well as called out the former leadership as the sole reason behind the financial ruin of the country. As per the projections, NPP and SJB were in the lead due to their active involvement at the grassroots level and the political tensions between the Former President, Ranil Wickremesinghe, and his party, UNP has averted voters to support him despite his best efforts in resolving the economic crunch.

As per the scenario analysis, this election was expected to be the first time where no candidate could achieve an absolute majority alongside the rise of a new party in power between the NPP and SJB, the two prominent opposition parties of Sri Lanka. There were a concern about the inexperience in leadership that could impact the economic recovery and the political stabilisation of the country. There was a possibility of an alliance between NPP and SJB in case of neither reaching the majority which could lead to a formation of a balanced government focusing towards the grassroots development of the country and undoing the past damages.

“The results were a direct reflection of the People’s movement known as “Aragalaya” where there was a display of dissatisfaction among the people with the political leadership”

However, as per the results of the elections, the First and Second Scenarios successfully materialised, with none of the candidates securing a majority vote in the initial round. It also accurately predicted the majority vote share being split between the NPP and SJB, who received 42.31 and 32.76 per cent respectively in the first preference. The results were a direct reflection of the People’s movement known as “Aragalaya” where there was a display of dissatisfaction among the people with the political leadership of the UNP which led to a split of the vote share between the two leading parties.

The third scenario failed to materialise despite an overall performance by the SJB, it gives scope for the party to cement their influence in the provinces like Jaffina, and Vanni in the North and Ampara, Batticaloa in the East where they gained the majority vote. These regions have a significant population of Tamils who are concerned with their status within the country and want equal representation at the political level. Several Tamil-led parties like Democratic People’s Front, and National Union of Workers have allied with SJB which would give a boost in the

“Presidential election will have a significant impact on the upcoming parliamentary elections next month, with projections predicting a close race between the NPP and SJB”

 The results of the Presidential election will have a significant impact on the upcoming parliamentary elections next month, with projections predicting a close race between the NPP and SJB to cross the majority mark of 113. SJB has the support of some minority parties which could sway the minority votes in the Northern and Central Provinces, however, SLPP can be in the position of a Kingmaker despite the poor performance in the presidential elections. The latest predictions positioned the SLPP in the 3rd place with 19% of the total votes.

There is a chance for the third scenario to play out in the Parliamentary elections, but it could lead to a clash of the two parties at the governance challenges which lead to instability until a compromise is made. However, the recommendations of the document provide a core insight into the major electoral agendas that will be raised in the campaigns. 

“On the foreign policy front, there will be fears for another heavy tilt towards China after the leader but it is expected that there will be a continuation of a pragmatic approach towards India and China, avoiding any tilts on one country.”

Concerns were made when newly elected president, Anura Kumara Dissanayake with his political leanings towards Marxism were reflected in his electoral promises of heavy tax cuts, subsidies in the agricultural sector and raising salaries of government officials as well as a possibility of pausing the IMF Bailout talks. However, all concerns were settled after he stated to come to the negotiating table with the IMF as soon as possible. 

On the foreign policy front, there will be fears for another heavy tilt towards China after the leader but it is expected that there will be a continuation of a pragmatic approach towards India and China, avoiding any tilts on one country. Other prominent powers like US, the UK, and Japan could also increase their engagements for securitising the maritime challenges in the Indo-Pacific. 

Domestically, the main objective for the new leadership is to bring back the trust towards the political institutions through a strong anti-corruption campaign and pushing inclusive growth for all. A focus on domestic production in the agriculture and industrial sector can be the key for reviving economic growth as well as reducing dependency on tourism in the long term.

Sri Lanka needs to focus on protecting its own economic interests and sovereignty in order to prevent a repeat of the 2015 incident and to become a stable beacon of democracy in a region where instability is echoing once again. 

• Shagun Thapliyal is a Research Assistant/Intern at SAFN; She is a Master’ Student at Jindal School of International Affairs (JSIA)| Analysing Geopolitics and Public Diplomacy worldwide with a Special focus on the Indo-Pacific.