Washington, DC – Sep 10^th, 2024, the South Asia Foresight Network (SAFN) unveils a landmark report on 9^th Sep 2024 at the National Press Club in Washington DC. The report launch was followed by a discussion with the authors, Mr. Asanga Abeyagoonasekera, Executive Director SAFN and Ms.Ishini Shashipraba, Research Assistant SAFN. Mr. Jerome C Glenn Co-founder of the Millennium Project delivered opening remarks highlighting the importance and timely relevance of the report and Ms.Poonam Sharma Editor in Chief Global Strat View(GSV) moderated the event.

The 60-page report Sri Lanka Presidential Election 2024: Political and Economic Analysis delivers a stark warning to policymakers and political actors. As Sri Lanka approaches its critical presidential election on September 21, 2024, the report outlines essential findings and provides urgent recommendations to mitigate the looming political, economic, and social risks threatening the nation.

Drawing from Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) with leading academics, journalists, politicians, civil society figures, and diplomats, the report leverages qualitative methodologies to project potential scenarios for Sri Lanka’s political economy.

Key Findings:

• Democratic Contraction: Despite leadership shifts, the report highlights an alarming trend of democratic erosion. Draconian legislative measures like the Prevention of Terrorism Act and the Online Safety Act point to ongoing state control over civil liberties, with military and police forces frequently used to suppress political dissent. This contraction of democratic space poses severe long-term risks to Sri Lanka’s democratic institutions.
• Governance Challenges: Despite having institutional frameworks in place, corruption and inefficiencies have eroded public trust in governance. The report identifies a critical need for reform in anti-corruption bodies, judicial processes, and law enforcement, as well as a more transparent policymaking process.
• Economic Instability: Persistent economic turmoil continues to undermine public trust. Though the government claims signs of recovery, rampant corruption and a lack of transparency erode institutional integrity. Inflation, unemployment, and socioeconomic inequality remain prevalent, exacerbating popular discontent.
• Political Alternatives: The Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) emerges as the most credible political alternative. The report praises the SJB’s experienced leadership and successful coalition-building efforts, noting that these factors place the SJB in a strong position to execute a coherent and comprehensive economic reform agenda. By uniting under a clear vision for economic stability and governance reform, the SJB stands as the most viable force to lead the nation. Conversely, while the National People’s Power (NPP) benefits from its anti-corruption stance and momentum from the Aragalaya movement, it lacks governance experience—an essential factor in tackling Sri Lanka’s economic crisis.
• Foreign Relations and Policy: The report stresses the need for balanced foreign policy, as Sri Lanka navigates complex relationships with India, China, and the United States. Successful economic recovery and political stability hinge on clear, pragmatic foreign policies.

Urgent Warning to Policymakers:

The SAFN report warns that without immediate reforms, Sri Lanka risks slipping further into a ‘polycrisis’—a convergence of economic, political, and social challenges. The country’s leadership must act swiftly to reverse democratic decay, stabilize the economy, and foster political accountability. External reports, including the IMF Governance Diagnostic and the latest UN OHCHR report 2024, highlight further reforms needed to support institutional integrity and human rights.

Call to Action:

This report serves as both a diagnostic tool and a roadmap for the future. As Sri Lanka’s presidential election looms, all political actors, civil society groups, and international stakeholders must engage thoughtfully to ensure that the country’s future is shaped by inclusive, transparent, and accountable governance.

Download report: https://southasiaforesight.org/sri-lanka-presidential-election-2024-political-economic-analysis/